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北朝鮮・イランは合理的なのか 

Security_Council_votes.jpg20009年6月12日、対北朝鮮制裁決議を全会一致で採択する国連安保理(Getty Images)

 オバマ政権になってから新しく就任したブレア米国家情報長官の「年次脅威評価」を一部読んでみた。前任者と同様、北朝鮮が核兵器と弾道ミサイルを、イランが弾道ミサイルを持つ目的は抑止のためだとみている参照。また、北朝鮮が核兵器や核物質を他の国や非国家アクターに売り、それが核攻撃やテロ攻撃に使われた場合、米国に北朝鮮の物と追跡されれば体制終末の危機に繋がるので、北朝鮮は核技術ほどは核兵器や核物質を売る危険を冒さないとみている。これって合理的行為者モデルで説明しているけど、どういう調査・分析をしてこういう見方になったのか気になるなぁ。

Pyongyang probably views its nuclear weapons as being more for deterrence, international prestige, and coercive diplomacy than for warfighting and would consider using nuclear weapons only under certain narrow circumstances. We also assess Pyongyang probably would not attempt to use nuclear weapons against US forces or territory unless it perceived the regime to be on the verge of military defeat and risked an irretrievable loss of control.


On the proliferation side, North Korea has sold ballistic missiles and associated materials to several Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, and, in our assessment, assisted Syria with the construction of a nuclear reactor. We remain concerned North Korea could again export nuclear technology. In the October 3 Second Phase Actions agreement, the DPRK reaffirmed its commitment not to transfer nuclear materials, technology, or know-how. We assess Pyongyang is less likely to risk selling nuclear weapons or weapons-quantities of fissile material than nuclear technology or less sensitive equipment to other countries or non-state actors, in part because it needs its limited fissile material for its own deterrent. Pyongyang probably also perceives that it would risk a regime-ending military confrontation with the United States if the nuclear material was used by another country or group in a nuclear strike or terrorist attacks and the United States could trace the material back to North Korea. It is possible, however, that the North might find a nuclear weapons or fissile material transfer more appealing if its own stockpile grows larger and/or it faces an extreme economic crisis where the potentially huge revenue from such a sale could help the country survive.
Beyond its WMD potential, Iranian conventional military power threatens Persian Gulf states and challenges US interests. Iran is enhancing its ability to project its military power, primarily with ballistic missiles and naval power, with the goal of dominating the Gulf region and deterring potential adversaries. It seeks a capacity to disrupt the operations and reinforcement of US forces based in the region, potentially intimidating regional allies into withholding support for US policy, and raising the political, financial, and human costs to the United States and our allies of our presence.

・ Iran’s growing inventory of ballistic missiles―it already has the largest inventory in the Middle East―and its acquisition of anti-ship cruise missiles provide capabilities to enhance its power projection. Tehran views its conventionally armed missiles as an integral part of its strategy to deter and if necessary retaliate against forces in the region, including US forces. Its ballistic missiles are inherently capable of delivering WMD and if so armed would fit into this same strategy.

[ 2009/06/17 19:40 ] 抑止・ミサイル防衛 | TB(1) | CM(0)

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National Interests of New Japan Allies  WEBマガジンを創ろうと以前に書きましたが、ようやく創刊にこぎつけました。執筆の依頼を引き受けてくださった「嘔吐」のUMA氏、マイミクのふるさわ氏、この場を借りて改めて御礼申し上げます。本当にありがとうございました、...
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