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Summary: Over the past decade, Burma has gone from being an antidemocratic embarrassment and humanitarian disaster to being a serious threat to its neighbors' security. The international community must change its approach to the country's junta. ¡Many Western governments, legislatures, and human rights organizations advocated applying pressure through diplomatic isolation and punitive economic sanctions. Burma's neighbors, on the other hand, adopted a form of constructive engagement in the hope of enticing the SLORC to reform. The result was an uncoordinated array of often contradictory approaches. The United States limited its diplomatic contact with the SLORC and eventually imposed mandatory trade and investment restrictions on the regime. Europe became a vocal advocate for political reform. But most Asian states moved to expand trade, aid, and diplomatic engagement with the junta, most notably by granting Burma full membership in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1997.
A decade later, the verdict is in: neither sanctions nor constructive engagement has worked. If anything, Burma has evolved from being an antidemocratic embarrassment and humanitarian disaster to being a serious threat to the security of its neighbors. But despite the mounting danger, many in the United States and the international community are still mired in the old sanctions-versus-engagement battle. ¢Worse, the SPDC appears to have been taking an even more threatening turn recently. Western intelligence officials have suspected for several years that the regime has had an interest in following the model of North Korea and achieving military autarky by developing ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. Last spring, the junta normalized relations and initiated conventional weapons trade with North Korea in violation of UN sanctions against Pyongyang. And despite Burma's ample reserves of oil and gas, it signed an agreement with Russia to develop what it says will be peaceful nuclear capabilities. For these reasons, despite urgent problems elsewhere in the world, all responsible members of the international community should be concerned about the course Burma is taking. £ASEAN may be the most important component of any international Burma policy. The organization invited Burma to join it in 1997 partly on the theory that integration would enhance ASEAN's influence over the junta more than would isolation (and partly out of concern over China's growing influence in the country). More recently, however, the ten-member organization has come to recognize that Burma is not only a stain on its international reputation but also a drain on its diplomatic resources and a threat to peace and stability in Asia. ¤When ASEAN was created four decades ago, its five founding states undertook not to interfere in each other's internal affairs as a way both to distance themselves from their colonial pasts and to avoid conflict in the future. But last January, ASEAN members prepared a new charter for the twenty-first century that champions democracy promotion and human rights as universal values, and they have established a human rights commission despite the SPDC's strong objections. With ASEAN's underlying principles under revision, leadership by Southeast Asian nations will become an even more essential component of any new international approach to the junta.
Japan will be another important force for reform. Tokyo and Washington perennially disagreed over their policies toward Burma in the 1980s and 1990s, but there has been a promising shift in Japan's attitude recently. Now that Tokyo has to contend with the slowdown in Japan's economic power and the rise in China's, it is articulating its foreign policy objectives and diplomacy in different terms. In November 2006, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso made a speech promoting an "arc of freedom and prosperity" from the Baltics to the Pacific and touting Tokyo's commitment to human rights, democracy, and the rule of law. His speech conspicuously omitted any mention of Burma, but there is no question that Japan's Burma policy has been shifting significantly. In September 2006, Tokyo finally agreed to support a discussion on Burma in the UN Security Council. Members of the Diet have created the Association for the Promotion of Values-Based Diplomacy, which seeks to infuse Japanese foreign policy in Asia with a renewed emphasis on promoting democracy. And last May, former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi joined 43 other former heads of state in an open letter calling on the SPDC to unconditionally release Suu Kyi.
Securing Japan's cooperation will be especially important. The Burmese people generally have a positive memory of Japan's assistance in helping the country throw off British colonial rule in the 1940s. Both the junta and the democratic opposition see opportunities for Japanese aid to help rebuild the country (although they disagree on the conditions under which that aid would be welcome). Furthermore, Burma presents a unique opportunity for Japan to demonstrate its bona fides on promoting democracy, protecting human rights, and advancing regional security -- especially at a time when the rhetoric and policies of China, the other Asian giant, continue to focus on outdated mercantilist principles. ¥If ASEAN and Japan are critical components of any international approach to Burma, China and India could be the greatest obstacles to efforts to induce reform in the country. China has many interests in Burma. Over the past 15 years, it has developed deep political and economic relations with Burma, largely through billions of dollars in trade and investment and more than a billion dollars' worth of weapons sales. It enjoys important military benefits, including access to ports and listening posts, which allow its armed forces to monitor naval and other military activities around the Indian Ocean and the Andaman Sea. To feed its insatiable appetite for energy, it also seeks preferential deals for access to Burma's oil and gas reserves.
Beijing's engagement with the SPDC has been essential to the regime's survival. China has provided it with moral and financial support -- including funds and materiel to pay off Burmese military elites -- thus increasing its leverage at home and abroad. By throwing China's weight behind the SPDC, Beijing has complicated the strategic calculations of those of Burma's neighbors that are concerned about the direction the country is moving in, thus enabling the junta to pursue a classic divide-and-conquer approach. ¦Like China, India is hungry for natural gas and other resources and is eager to build a road network through Burma that would expand its trade with ASEAN. As a result, it has attempted to match China step for step as an economic and military partner of the SPDC, providing tanks, light artillery, reconnaissance and patrol aircraft, and small arms; India is now Burma's fourth-largest trading partner. Singh's government has also fallen for the junta's blackmail over cross-border drug and arms trafficking and has preferred to give it military and economic assistance rather than let Burma become a safe haven for insurgents active in India's troubled northeastern region. §Yet this shortsighted policy is clearly not in India's interests. Persistent repression and turmoil in Burma will continue to threaten India's security along its border. Internal political reform leading to a more open and reconciled Burma would be far more beneficial for India than anything that would result from India's current tactical accommodations. Of course, India is eager to counter Chinese influence and strengthen its linkages to ASEAN through Burma. ¨Sanctions policies will need to coexist with various forms of engagement, and it will be necessary to coordinate all of these measures toward the common end of encouraging reform, reconciliation, and ultimately the return of democracy. To succeed, the region's major players will need to work together. ©The international community needs to act now to begin a process of concentrated and coordinated engagement for the benefit of the Burmese people and of broader peace and stability in Asia. As with the six-party talks on North Korea, a multilateral approach will require some compromise by all participants. The United States will need to reconsider its restrictions on engaging the SPDC; ASEAN, China, and India will need to reevaluate their historical commitment to noninterference; Japan will need to consider whether its economics-based approach to Burma undermines its new commitment to values-based diplomacy. But all parties have good reasons to make concessions. None of them can afford to watch Burma descend further into isolation and desperation and wait to act until another generation of its people is lost. In addition to humanitarian principles, there are strategic grounds for stepping up diplomatic efforts on Burma: it is now the most serious remaining challenge to the security and unity of Southeast Asia. Of course, change will eventually come to Burma. But without the coordinated engagement of the major interested powers today, that change will come at a great cost: to the stability of Southeast Asia, to the conscience of the international community, and, most important, to the long-suffering Burmese people, who languish in the shadows as the rest of the world concentrates its energies elsewhere.
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°úÍѸµ¡§ÙÇÃ×̤²ò·è¤Ç¤âËÌÄ«Á¯¤Î¥Æ¥í¹ñ²È»ØÄê²ò½ü¡¡¥é¥¤¥¹Êƹñ̳Ĺ´±¼¨º¶(»º·Ð¿·Ê¹ 2007/09/25) Ä«Æü¤È ÆÉÇä¤Ë¤âƱÍͤε»ö¤¬¤¢¤ê¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£¤½¤·¤Æ¡¢¤³¤Î»°¼Ò¤¬¥½¡¼¥¹¤Ë¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¥í¥¤¥¿¡¼¤Îµ»ö¤Ï¢ U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice hinted on Monday that North Korea could be dropped from a U.S. terrorism blacklist before fully accounting for the Japanese citizens it abducted in the 1970s and 1980s. "I don't think that we want to get into a situation in which we have locked all of the steps that we might take with the North Koreans and lock them into a certain sequence with other steps that we think need to be taken," Rice told Reuters in an interview.
"We have to be able to use whatever incentives we have that are appropriate to the stage at which we are with the North Koreans," she added. °úÍѸµ¡§North Korea may be dropped from terrorism list, U.S. hints(Reuters 2007/09/24)
¤½¤·¤Æ¡¢´Î¿´¤Î¥¤¥ó¥¿¥Ó¥å¡¼¤Î¥¹¥¯¥ê¥×¥È¤Ï¢ QUESTION: Can we go to North Korea for a sec? The six-party talks are going to start this week again. Chris Hill recently suggested that North Korea could be taken off the state sponsors of terrorism list before it completely denuclearizes. Is the United States willing to consider removing North Korea from the state sponsors list even if it has not fully addressed the Japanese concerns about their abductees? Can you do that without a full accounting on the abductees?
SECRETARY RICE: Well, the state sponsor of terrorism list has a kind of internal logic; in other words, there's a set of measures, a set of indices that are supposed to be met in order to come off the state sponsor of terrorism list. And I think we need to look at those. And we are going through the process of seeing if North Korea meets those tests.
There is obviously some advantage to doing something like that in conjunction with the next phase of North Korean - of the six-party talks, and the next phase, of course, is disablement and declaration.
We have been very clear with the Japanese - and we have very good cooperation and coordination on this - that we are not going to forget the abduction issue. In fact, it is a subject for discussion every time Chris speaks with the North Koreans. We're going to keep pressing it. It's a really horrible humanitarian situation. It was a terrible thing to do and it needs to be resolved.
We've also been very active in pressing for and I think helping to move forward the bilateral DPRK-Japan track, which is really where this has to be resolved. But I don't think that we want to get into a situation in which we have locked all of the steps that we might take with the North Koreans and lock them into a certain sequence with other steps that we think need to be taken. We have to be able to use whatever incentives we have that are appropriate to the stage at which we are with the North Koreans.
But if we get to that point, it will be a very fortunate thing, so right now I think we're just concentrating on trying to get a disablement schedule and a declaration that is full and complete.
QUESTION: It sounds like what you're saying is that, in fact, you would consider taking them off, even if you don't drop the abductee issue, even if it's not fully resolved, you've got to be able to --
SECRETARY RICE: We'll consider the right sequence and the right set of steps as we approach the reality - hopefully the reality - of a disablement schedule.
°úÍѸµ¡§Interview With the Reuters Editorial Board(ÊÆ¹ñ̳¾Ê 2007/09/24)
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¡¡¤³¤³¿ôÆü´èÄ¥¤Ã¤ÆÏ¢Æü¥Ö¥í¥°¤ò¹¹¿·¤·¤Æ¤ª¤ê¤Þ¤¹¡Ê¤¿¤À¤Î²Ë¿Í¤È¤â¸À¤¦¡Ë¡£¥·¥ê¥¢¶õÇú»ö·ï´ØÏ¢¤Î¥Ë¥å¡¼¥¹¤ò¤º¤Ã¤È¥¦¥©¥Ã¥Á¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¤É¤ó¤É¤ó¥·¥ê¥¢¤ÈËÌÄ«Á¯¤¬¥¯¥í¤À¤È¤¤¤¦µ»ö¤¬½Ð¤Æ¤¤Þ¤¹¤Í¡£ ISRAELI commandos from the elite Sayeret Matkal unit – almost certainly dressed in Syrian uniforms – made their way stealthily towards a secret military compound near Dayr az-Zawr in northern Syria. They were looking for proof that Syria and North Korea were collaborating on a nuclear programme.
Israel had been surveying the site for months, according to Washington and Israeli sources. President George W Bush was told during the summer that Israeli intelligence suggested North Korean personnel and nuclear-related material were at the Syrian site.
Israel was determined not to take any chances with its neighbour. Following the example set by its raid on an Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak 1981, it drew up plans to bomb the Syrian compound.
But Washington was not satisfied. It demanded clear evidence of nuclear-related activities before giving the operation its blessing. The task of the commandos was to provide it.
Today the site near Dayr az-Zawr lies in ruins after it was pounded by Israeli F15Is on September 6. Before the Israelis issued the order to strike, the commandos had secretly seized samples of nuclear material and taken them back into Israel for examination by scientists, the sources say. A laboratory confirmed that the unspecified material was North Korean in origin. America approved an attack.
°úÍѸµ¡§Snatched: Israeli commandos ¡Ænuclear¡Ç raid(The Sunday Times 2007/09/23)
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Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu has broken an official silence over Syria's accusations that Israel bombed its territory, hinting the reported mission was of strategic significance and a success.
Asked during an Israeli television interview on Wednesday to comment on "that operation that is so cloaked in secrecy", Netanyahu said: "I was privy to the matter from the outset and I gave my backing. But it's too early to be discussing this."
°úÍѸµ¡§Netanyahu breaks Israeli silence over Syria sortie(Reuters 2007/9/20)
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¡¡ÆüËܤΥá¥Ç¥£¥¢¤ÏÁ´¤¯Ê󤸤Ƥ¤¤Ê¤¤¤¬¡¢º£ÃæÅì¤ÎÊý¤Ï¤¨¤é¤¤¤³¤È¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤Ê¤ó¤È ¥¤¥¹¥é¥¨¥ë¤¬¥·¥ê¥¢¤ò¶õÇú¤·¤¿¤Î¤À¡ª¹¶·âÂоݤ¬²¿¤À¤Ã¤¿¤Î¤«¤ÇÁû¤¬¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤¬¡¢¿¿Áê¤Ï¤Þ¤À°ì±þÉÔÌÀ¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¦¡¦¡¦ Officials in Washington said that the most likely targets of the raid were weapons caches that Israel¡Çs government believes Iran has been sending the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah through Syria. Iran and Syria are Hezbollah¡Çs primary benefactors, and American intelligence officials say a steady flow of munitions from Iran runs through Syria and into Lebanon.
°úÍѸµ¡§U.S. Confirms Israeli Strikes Hit Syrian Target Last Week(NewYorkTimes 2007/9/12)
¡¡¤³¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ë¹¶·âÂоݤϥì¥Ð¥Î¥ó¤Î¥¤¥¹¥é¥à¶¯¹ÅÇÉÁÈ¿¥¥Ò¥º¥Ü¥é¤Ë¶¡µë¤¹¤ëÉð´ïÊݴɸˤÀ¤È¤â¸À¤ï¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤¬¡¢¤ä¤Ï¤ê ³Ë»ÜÀߤβÄǽÀ¤¬¹â¤¤¤è¤¦¤À¡£¥¸¥ç¥ó¡¦¥Ü¥ë¥È¥óÁ°ÊƹñÏ¢Âç»È¤Ï¼¡¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ë¸À¤¦¡£ John Bolton, the former U.S. ambassador to the U.N., told Israeli Channel 10 TV he thought Israel might have been attacking a nuclear installation, "a message not only to Syria, but to Iran."
"I think it would be unusual for Israel to conduct a military operation inside Syria other than for a very high value target, and certainly a Syrian effort in the nuclear weapons area would qualify," Bolton said in an interview broadcast Sunday.
°úÍѸµ¡§Israeli Official Muzzled on Syria Attack(washingtonpost.com 2007/9/16)
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¤È¤Î¤³¤È¡£·èÄêÂǤˤʤ俤Ȼפï¤ì¤ë3¡Ë¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¤Ï¡¢¥ï¥·¥ó¥È¥ó¥Ý¥¹¥È¤Ë¤â½ñ¤«¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£ North Korea may be cooperating with Syria on some sort of nuclear facility in Syria, according to new intelligence the United States has gathered over the past six months, sources said. The evidence, said to come primarily from Israel, includes dramatic satellite imagery that led some U.S. officials to believe that the facility could be used to produce material for nuclear weapons.
°úÍѸµ¡§N. Korea, Syria May Be at Work on Nuclear Facility(washingtonpost.com 2007/9/13)
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°úÍѸµ¡§N. Korea, Syria May Be at Work on Nuclear Facility(washingtonpost.com 2007/9/13)
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Mr Koizumi, his predecessor, was one of the most gifted and exciting prime ministers since the war; with his reserved and dignified manner, Mr Abe was always put at a disadvantage by the comparison. But he came to power amid great excitement, particularly on the Right, and he was said to feel a sense of personal destiny in succeeding to a job held by his grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, and narrowly missed by his father, Shintaro Abe. Now he will go down in history as one of Japan¡Çs political also-rans, soon to be forgotten.
°úÍѸµ¡§Irresolute leader who was a magnet for crisis(TimesOnline 2007/9/13)
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°úÍѸµ¡§Japan's next premier: the contenders(TimesOnline 2007/9/12)
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